2017 Potential Blockbusters
My guesses on what the 25 largest blockbusters of 2017 will be. All guesses are worldwide estimates, and all are recorded in $USD.
After each film concludes it's run in theaters, i compare my estimate with the actual worldwide gross, after which i find the difference as a percentage, and then award myself a grade based off of the following system:
A+ - 5% AND UNDER
A - 10% AND UNDER
B - 25% AND UNDER
C - 50% AND UNDER
D+ - 75% AND UNDER
D - 100% AND UNDER
F - 100% AND OVER
After each film concludes it's run in theaters, i compare my estimate with the actual worldwide gross, after which i find the difference as a percentage, and then award myself a grade based off of the following system:
A+ - 5% AND UNDER
A - 10% AND UNDER
B - 25% AND UNDER
C - 50% AND UNDER
D+ - 75% AND UNDER
D - 100% AND UNDER
F - 100% AND OVER
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25 titles
- DirectorRian JohnsonStarsDaisy RidleyJohn BoyegaMark HamillRey develops her abilities with the help of Luke Skywalker, as the Resistance prepares for battle against the First Order.Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.332 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.955 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -68.2%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
Based off of the success of The Force Awakens and Rogue One, it is a given that Episode VIII will surpass one billion, however whether it can surpass the box office of its predecessor will depend on whether or not audiences will accept this new trend of one Star Wars film a year.
Reality:
Didn't earn as much as I thought it would. I think the divided reception the film received from fans may have played a factor in it's box office run. However, it is unfair to compare The Last Jedi's performance to The Force Awakens, as the latter had the advantage of being the first SW film in ten years and the hype that came along with that. - DirectorBill CondonStarsEmma WatsonDan StevensLuke EvansA selfish Prince is cursed to become a monster for the rest of his life, unless he learns to fall in love with a beautiful young woman he keeps prisoner.Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.263 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 692 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +58.45%
Guess Grade:
Expectation:
The hype around this film has been phenomenal. With a star-studed cast, it has the potential to rake in some serious box office. However, Disney's live-action remakes have been very hit and miss, although they have all done well at the box office. Still i am going with a modest (for Disney at least) prediction.
Reality:
Like I said these Disney live-action remakes can be hit or miss. This one was obviously a hit, a very very big hit. - DirectorF. Gary GrayStarsVin DieselJason StathamDwayne JohnsonWhen a mysterious woman seduces Dominic Toretto into the world of terrorism and a betrayal of those closest to him, the crew face trials that will test them as never before.Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.236 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.340 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -8.07%
Guess Grade: A
Expectation:
The reason the Fast & Furious franchise has endured for so long is because it has been able to reinvent itself when it needs to. Looking at the success of Furious 7 it would appear that audiences are enjoying the direction in which the franchise is headed. Therefore i can see this installment in the franchise easily joining the billion dollar club.
Reality:
I think I was pretty much on the money here. - DirectorKyle BaldaPierre CoffinEric GuillonStarsSteve CarellKristen WiigTrey ParkerGru meets his long-lost, charming, cheerful, and more successful twin brother Dru, who wants to team up with him for one last criminal heist.Actual Worldwide Gross: 1.034 Billion
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 905 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +13.38%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
Based off of the success of previous films in the franchise, it would appear that Despicable Me 3 should break that billion dollar ceiling, however as its release coincides with the release of several other blockbuster films such as Spider-Man: Homecoming, Dunkirk and War for the Planet of the Apes it could be difficult for the film to surpass it's predecessor. However, it has the potential to go the opposite way, it may be able to dominate the family market, as it's competition doesn't have nearly the same amount of brand recognition. Therefore i am going to guess the film will land just a little behind it's predecessor.
Reality:
The film did exactly what I thought it would. It dominated the family market, running through August with no competition Despicable Me 3 managed to join the billion dollar club. - DirectorJake KasdanStarsDwayne JohnsonKaren GillanKevin HartFour teenagers are sucked into a magical video game, and the only way they can escape is to work together to finish the game.Actual Worldwide Gross: 962.07 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 350 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +93.29%
Guess Grade: D - DirectorJon WattsStarsTom HollandMichael KeatonRobert Downey Jr.Peter Parker balances his life as an ordinary high school student in Queens with his superhero alter-ego Spider-Man, and finds himself on the trail of a new menace prowling the skies of New York City.Actual Worldwide Gross: 880.16 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 750 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +15.96%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
With Tom Holland's Spider-Man debuting in Civil War to ecstatic reviews and reactions from critics and audiences alike, it is clear that audiences still want to see a new Spider-Man film. Every Spider-Man film has grossed more than 700 million at the worldwide box office. This installment seems poised to be a force at the box office, however it will have a lot of competition with War of the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk coming out in the weeks following Homecoming's release. Therefore it will most likely follow a similar path to that of Guardians of the Galaxy at the box office.
Reality:
The film did a lot better than I expected. I think the film benefited from the hype Tom Holland's Spider-Man generated in Civil War and this translated into the box office. - DirectorLee UnkrichAdrian MolinaStarsAnthony GonzalezGael García BernalBenjamin BrattAspiring musician Miguel, confronted with his family's ancestral ban on music, enters the Land of the Dead to find his great-great-grandfather, a legendary singer.Actual Worldwide Gross: 807 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 810 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -0.36%
Guess Grade: A+
Expectation:
In previous years, I have underestimated Pixar films, with both Finding Dory and Inside Out grossing more than 850 million worldwide. Coco is opening to little competition and should have no problem dominating the animated box office for at least a couple of weeks.
Reality:
I was so close. - DirectorJames GunnStarsChris PrattZoe SaldanaDave BautistaThe Guardians struggle to keep together as a team while dealing with their personal family issues, notably Star-Lord's encounter with his father, the ambitious celestial being Ego.Actual Worldwide Gross: 863.75 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.012 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -15.80%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
There is no question in my mind that the follow up to 2014's surprise success Guardians of the Galaxy will be a box office gold mine for Disney and Marvel. The question is how much of a success will it be? The answer, a massive success, if you base it off of the reception to the trailers and the franchise's name recognition. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 has a real chance at becoming the fifth film in the MCU to surpass one billion dollars.
Reality:
I got a little bit carried away, I overestimated the effect of the hype train, that being said the film still earned almost a $100 million more than it's predecessor, making it one of the more successful sequels on this list. - DirectorTaika WaititiStarsChris HemsworthTom HiddlestonCate BlanchettImprisoned on the planet Sakaar, Thor must race against time to return to Asgard and stop Ragnarök, the destruction of his world, at the hands of the powerful and ruthless villain Hela.Actual Worldwide Gross: 853.97 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 721 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +16.88%
Guess Grade: B
Expectation:
Fans have high expectations for Thor: Ragnarok and the hype-train has begun to pick up speed. Each Thor film has made more money than the last, so i predict this film will make more than 700 million.
Reality:
Ragnarok exceeded expectations, including mine. - DirectorPatty JenkinsStarsGal GadotChris PineRobin WrightWhen a pilot crashes and tells of conflict in the outside world, Diana, an Amazonian warrior in training, leaves home to fight a war, discovering her full powers and true destiny.Actual Worldwide Gross: 821.84 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 743 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +10%
Guess Grade: A
Expectation:
With the success of Suicide Squad and BvS: Dawn of Justice, it would be a surprise if Wonder Woman were to fail. The film should comfortably gross 500 million and granted it has the legs and is released to favorable reviews, Wonder Woman will be able to gross upwards of 700 million.
Reality:
I was right, I think I underestimated the impact Wonder Woman being the first female-led superhero film, as this factor certainly had an impact on WW's box office run. - DirectorJoachim RønningEspen SandbergStarsJohnny DeppGeoffrey RushJavier BardemCaptain Jack Sparrow is pursued by old rival Captain Salazar and a crew of deadly ghosts who have escaped from the Devil's Triangle. They're determined to kill every pirate at sea...notably Jack.Actual Worldwide Gross: 794.86 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 650 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +20.05%
Guess Grade: B - DirectorChristopher NolanStarsFionn WhiteheadBarry KeoghanMark RylanceAllied soldiers from Belgium, the British Commonwealth and Empire, and France are surrounded by the German Army and evacuated during a fierce battle in World War II.Actual Worldwide Gross: 527.26 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 690 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -26.73%
Guess Grade: C - DirectorZack SnyderStarsBen AffleckGal GadotJason MomoaFueled by his restored faith in humanity and inspired by Superman's selfless act, Bruce Wayne enlists the help of his new-found ally, Diana Prince, to face an even greater enemy.Actual Worldwide Gross: 657.92 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 936 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -34.89%
Guess Grade: C
Expectation:
In spite of less than favourbale reviews from critics, audiences have shown they are excited to see what the DC Cinematic Universe has to offer. Out of all the films on the upcoming DCCU roster, Justice League will most likely be the most successful in terms of box office return. However, the success of Justice League may depend on both the critical and commercial success of Wonder Woman, as audiences may be trepidatious if Wonder Woman does not meet expectations. For now I predict Justice League's box office will go the way of Dawn of Justice and sit just below the billion dollar mark.
Reality:
Justice League SHOULD have easily made one billion at the box office, however audiences and critics alike weren't impressed with the film, along with highly publicised production problems and a marketing campaign that began 18 months prior to the release date all contributed to Justice League's underwhelming performance. - DirectorJames MangoldStarsHugh JackmanPatrick StewartDafne KeenIn a future where mutants are nearly extinct, an elderly and weary Logan leads a quiet life. But when Laura, a mutant child pursued by scientists, comes to him for help, he must get her to safety.Actual Worldwide Gross: 619.02 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 587 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +5.31%
Guess Grade: A - DirectorMichael BayStarsMark WahlbergAnthony HopkinsJosh DuhamelA deadly threat from Earth's history reappears and a hunt for a lost artifact takes place between Autobots and Decepticons, while Optimus Prime encounters his creator in space.Actual Worldwide Gross: 605.42 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 1.025 Billion
Actual to Predicted Difference: -51.47%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
The previous installment in the franchise, Age of Extinction, succeeded due to a strong foreign box office. If this film can tap into that same vein it will probably surpass one billion. However, this installment could potentially fall victim to franchise fatigue if it does not introduce new elements that shake up the established formula.
Reality:
Whilst the film did very well in China, it underperformed in pretty much every other market. Domestically, the film $100 million less than Revenge of the Fallen, signaling to me that despite a solid gross of 600 million, this will be the last Transformers film. - DirectorJordan Vogt-RobertsStarsTom HiddlestonSamuel L. JacksonBrie LarsonAfter the Vietnam war, a team of scientists explores an uncharted island in the Pacific, venturing into the domain of the mighty Kong and must fight to escape a primal Eden.Actual Worldwide Gross: 566.65 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 550 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: +2.98%
Guess Grade: A+ - DirectorMatt ReevesStarsAndy SerkisWoody HarrelsonSteve ZahnAfter the apes suffer unimaginable losses, Caesar wrestles with his darker instincts and begins his own mythic quest to avenge his kind.Actual Worldwide Gross: 490.71 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 715 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -37.20%
Guess Grade: C
Expectation:
Apes has tough competition to overcome, i have been generous because i expect a strong outing from fans. Additionally Dawn of the planet of the Apes did quite well while having quite a bit of competition, so i expect a similar box office.
Reality:
Like I said my prediction was quite generous and I knew one film coming out in that late July/ early August was going to take a hit at the box office and unfortunately War took the brunt of it. - DirectorMatthew VaughnStarsTaron EgertonColin FirthMark StrongAfter the Kingsman's headquarters is destroyed and the world is held hostage, an allied spy organization in the United States is discovered. These two elite secret agencies must band together to defeat a common enemy.Actual Worldwide Gross: 410.90 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 540 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -27.15%
Guess Grade: C - DirectorAlex KurtzmanStarsTom CruiseSofia BoutellaAnnabelle WallisAn ancient Egyptian princess is awakened from her crypt beneath the desert, bringing with her malevolence grown over millennia and terrors that defy human comprehension.Actual Worldwide Gross: 409.23 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 570 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -32.83%
Guess Grade: C - DirectorBrian FeeStarsOwen WilsonCristela AlonzoChris CooperLightning McQueen sets out to prove to a new generation of racers that he's still the best race car in the world.Actual Worldwide Gross: 383.93 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 707 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -59.22%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
Looking at past films in the franchise, it would seem that the third outing will just creep over 700 million. IF the film can achieve better critical reception than its predecessors, then it has the potential to outperform my prediction. But for now, i am keeping it around the 700 million mark.
Reality:
I don't know what I was thinking. It really didn't have a chance of making anywhere near my prediction. - DirectorJames FoleyStarsDakota JohnsonJamie DornanEric JohnsonWhile Christian wrestles with his inner demons, Anastasia must confront the anger and envy of the women who came before her.Actual Worldwide Gross: 376.96 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 610 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -47.22%
Guess Grade: C - DirectorChris McKayStarsWill ArnettMichael CeraRosario DawsonA cooler-than-ever Bruce Wayne must deal with the usual suspects as they plan to rule Gotham City, while discovering that he has accidentally adopted a teenage orphan who wishes to become his sidekick.Actual Worldwide Gross: 311.95 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 640 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -68.92%
Guess Grade: D+
Expectation:
HYPE! HYPE! Warner Bros. is hoping that they can repeat the success of the LEGO movie. It may happen, it may not.
Reality:
I don't know what I was thinking. Completely wrong. - DirectorRidley ScottStarsMichael FassbenderKatherine WaterstonBilly CrudupThe crew of a colony ship, bound for a remote planet, discover an uncharted paradise with a threat beyond their imagination, and must attempt a harrowing escape.Actual Worldwide Gross: 240.89 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 580 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -82.61%
Guess Grade: D - DirectorKelly AsburyStarsDemi LovatoRainn WilsonJoe ManganielloA mysterious map sets Smurfette and her friends Brainy, Clumsy and Hefty on an exciting race through the Forbidden Forest, leading to the discovery of the biggest secret in Smurf history.Actual Worldwide Gross: 197.18 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 540 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: -93%
Guess Grade: D - DirectorSeth GordonStarsDwayne JohnsonZac EfronAlexandra DaddarioDevoted lifeguard Mitch Buchannon butts heads with a brash new recruit, as they uncover a criminal plot that threatens the future of the bay.Actual Worldwide Gross: 177.85 Million
Predicted Worldwide Gross: 400 Million
Actual to Predicted Difference: 76.88%
Guess Grade: D